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Study on the Formation and Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Over Bay of Bengal Using Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Model

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dc.contributor.advisor Akhter, Prof. Dr. Md. Abdullah Elias
dc.contributor.author Islam, Md. Nazrul
dc.date.accessioned 2018-08-29T07:28:28Z
dc.date.available 2018-08-29T07:28:28Z
dc.date.copyright 2013
dc.date.issued 2013-11
dc.identifier.other ID 0855551
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12228/429
dc.description This thesis is submitted to the Department of Physics, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in Physics, November 2013. en_US
dc.description Cataloged from PDF Version of Thesis.
dc.description Includes bibliographical references (pages 152-167).
dc.description.abstract In the tropics the tropical cyclone is one of the most disastrous atmospheric phenomena of the tropics, which forms over the warm oceans and ravage life and property especially over the coastal belt due to extremely strong winds and associated storm surges at the time of landfall. The Bay of Bengal is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclogenesis. To save the life and minimize the damages it is necessary to make advance warning and prediction of tropical cyclone quite ahead of time. Therefore a study has been conducted to investigate the formation, evolution, structure, track and landfall of tropical cyclones using Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model. The study has been performed for three land falling tropical cyclones of different intensities formed in the Bay of Bengal and had their landfall to the coast of Bangladesh, Myan mar and east coast of India. These are very severy cyclonic storm Nargis (2008), very severy cyclonic storm Thane (2011) and cyclonic storm Mahasen (2013). The model has been set for the Bay of Bengal basin at 9 km horizontal resolution with Kain-Fritch (KF) cumulus parameterization, WRF-single moment (WSM) 3-class microphysics and Yonsei University PBL schemes. The GFS resolution has been used as initial field and lateral boundary conditions. The present study shows that the ARW model is capable of forecasting the formation of the first low pressure system 24 hrs ahead from its actual genesis without incorporation of any artificial vortex and is capable to forecast the formation of the first depression. The model successfully simulates the realistic evolution process and more or less realistic intensification of tropical cyclones. For some cases the model under estimated the intensity of the cyclonic system. The model results indicate that the longer range prediction provides better intensity forecast. The model generates a realistic structure of the tropical cyclones with high spatial details. This has been possible due to the higher spatial resolution of the regional model. One of the outstanding findings of the study is that the model has successfully predicted the tracks, recurvature and time of landfall of the selected tropical cyclones with high accuracy even in the 96 hrs prediction. Therefore the model has high potential to predict the formation, evolution, intensity, track and landfall of the tropical cyclones of the Bay of Bengal. en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibility Md. Nazrul Islam
dc.format.extent 168 pages
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna, Bangladesh. en_US
dc.rights Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET) thesis/dissertation/internship reports are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission.
dc.subject Cyclone en_US
dc.subject Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) en_US
dc.subject Tropical Cyclogenesis en_US
dc.title Study on the Formation and Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Over Bay of Bengal Using Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Model en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US
dc.description.degree Master of Philosophy in Physics
dc.contributor.department Department of Physics

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